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Two Risks to Consider Amid the Bullishness William Hester, CFAMarch 2. All rights reserved and actively enforced. Reprint Policy. According to a recent Bank of America Fund Manager Survey, Europe is now the top pick of managers for the coming twelve months. A record 6. 3 percent of fund managers are allocating their assets toward Europe, up from just 1. More than 8. 0 percent see the Euro- area economy strengthening this year, boosted by export growth tied to a 2. European Central Bank. He followed up with, “Bullishness towards European stocks has reached unchartered territory”. European stock markets, on the surface, certainly have the characteristics investors typically seek out, especially in this new era of staggered global monetary easing campaigns. The ECB has a new QE program in the works, just as the US is winding down its own. And, especially in local currency terms, the euro- area markets have witnessed the typical post- QE announcement boost after Mario Draghi sketched out plans for a bond buying program back in January. Economic data has also been coming in stronger than economists had expected, pushing European stocks to their highest level since early 2. The first is that rising valuation multiples have been the nearly singular cause for higher prices over the last few years. Second, the component of returns driven by rising valuation multiples - which have diverged so extensively from fundamental growth - is highly correlated to US stock market fluctuations. To be bullish on European stocks, one should be bullish on US stocks. This is not how a recommendation for international stock markets is usually presented. It’s typically suggested that because US stocks are expensive, then investors should consider the cheapest international stocks, which among developed countries, are in the European markets. The historical record indicates that this suggestion will likely be appropriate only if the US market continues to advance. If a bear market were to begin in US stocks, European stocks – especially the cheapest ones - would likely perform as badly as or worse than US markets. In the long- term, valuation considerations are essential. In the intermediate term, and especially during declines in the U. S. On the valuation front, the historical evidence does support a preference for investing in countries with lower relative valuations. For example, a portfolio holding the 5 highest yielding developed countries each month since 1. As of October 2, 2017, MyWay Email will be shut down. If you are a MyWay Email account holder, please log in and save all information you wish to save. North Dakota ranks fourth among the U.S. View a Canadian Dollar to US Dollar currency exchange rate graph. This currency graph will show you a 1 month CAD/USD history. MSCI World Index by 3. Even so, this country rotation strategy has trailed the World Index since 2. It’s possible that underperformance could continue after the initial burst of excitement following the announcement of ECB QE. A more persistent increase in fundamental growth (to catch up with the price increases of the past few years), or a correction from recent highs, would create an environment more typical for European value stocks to do well. The Speculative Component of Short- Term Returns. One way to project future expected returns, and to analyze past returns, is to separate them into a component that comes from growth in fundamentals and the component that comes from the change in the valuation multiple on those fundamentals. Jack Bogle, who has being explaining returns to investors this way for decades, calls these components the . Bogle has typically used dividends as a fundamental, but sales and smoothed measures of earnings can also be used, provided that the corresponding valuation multiples are used. Take for example one of the best performing stocks in the S& P 5. During that period, sales per share rose about 1. The speculative component of last year’s price return therefore made up about 7. Another top performer, an operator of medical facilities, had similar numbers. Its sales rose 1. So the speculative component contributed about 8. Although the portion of returns originating from the speculative component in both of these cases may seem high, it’s actually what you’d expect from a large sample of stocks. In the graph below, I’ve taken a smoothed median of the speculative contribution for the largest US stocks each year, beginning in 2. That contribution can vary, but on average, about 8. The outlier in the chart is interesting too. The speculative component rose above 1. As the period of analysis lengthens, a larger contribution of a stock’s return comes from a change in the fundamentals, compared with the contribution from a change in valuation multiples. In the graph below I’ve plotted the make- up of these contributions. About 8. 0 percent of first- year returns typically come from a change in valuation multiples and 2. That aligns well with the time- series analysis of 1- year returns shown in the graph above. By the third year of the holding period, about 4. By year five, half of the return originates from a change in the fundamentals. Over longer periods of time reaching out to ten years, the bulk of the return originates from a change in the fundamentals, reversing the importance of the components relative to year one. Considering the large span of time the data covers and the large number of companies it includes, we can assume that the particular progression shown in the graph from speculative contribution to fundamental contribution is to be what is expected, on average, from individual companies. European Value Stocks. Since 2. 01. 0, value strategies and stocks have performed poorly on a relative basis. The country rotation strategy mentioned above is trailing the MSCI World benchmark noticeably over that time period, gaining at just 1. Most of the value indices tracked by MSCI have also trailed the World benchmark (even excluding the performance of the US market). But most of this underperformance occurred in 2. So, the cheapest stocks in the cheapest markets have definitely participated during this period of anticipation of ECB QE. As a number of other analysts have pointed out, there has been a growing divergence between the fundamental component and the speculative component of European stock market returns. There has been a persistent trend of rising multiples and flat or falling earnings since 2. Using the framework for return attribution discussed above and applying it to European stocks, we can put the stark divergence between the two into better context. The graph below reflects the stocks in the Bloomberg European 5. Index and assigns them to 5 baskets based on their recent price to sales ratio. The blue line shows the median speculative contribution for each basket of stocks. The most expensive stocks begin on the left. The graph shows the stocks in the bottom 2. European value stocks have kept pace broadly with the other benchmarks in the past few years thanks to essentially one force alone – rising valuation multiples. We’re three years into this particular measurement period for stocks. By now, based on historical norms, about 3. That has clearly not been the case with European stocks, especially the cheapest ones. The cyclically- adjusted PE ratio for the European Value Index is still below its long- term median, and lower than in other developed regions. It also doesn’t suggest that these investments will trail the return of the US market in the long- term. The European Value Index has a dividend yield of 4. US. On dividend income alone, the region has a head start on the US market, especially if the US market trades in a tight trading range. But it does suggest that it’s likely that the portion of return originating from rising multiples is unlikely to be as strong as it has been the last few years, and a much larger burden will rest on the growth in fundamentals. The Correlation of Speculative Returns and US Markets. Euro- area stocks have a significant speculative component priced into them relative to the change in fundamentals over the last few years. The cheaper the stock, the more speculation has been priced in, on average. The risk at present is that this speculative component is highly correlated with US markets, and that correlation has been rising over the last two decades. In the event of a U. S. The graph below shows the rolling drawdowns of the MSCI US Index and the MSCI European Value Index (using monthly data, in US dollars). The fact that both markets tend to experience their deepest losses simultaneously is why it’s sometimes said that “international diversification helps except when you need it most.” What’s interesting about the graph is where the red line – the European Value Index – typically sits in relation to US stocks during bear market declines, especially in more recent data. During many of the declines, the European Value Index has either fallen about as much as the US market, or has fallen farther. And, not surprisingly, this tendency was more pronounced during the financial crisis. The Index continues to sit below the highs it set back in 2. This also shows up in the data, especially over the last 1. Relative to the US market, the European Value Index’s downside capture – what it loses in relation to the US market when US stocks are falling - is 1. Its upside capture is 1. Put differently, European Value often behaves as if it were simply a more speculative and volatile subset of U. S. The graph below shows the broad MSCI regional indexes, and their upside and downside capture relative to the US during two periods. The blue markers show the variations of international indexes relative to the US from 1. This is the period where international stocks offered some diversification benefits – falling by a smaller amount in US bear markets, but capturing a majority of the gains of the US market when it rose. The red markers show how these international indexes have done relative to the US from 2. 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